Correlation between Sunspots and Interplanetary Shocks Measured by WIND during 1995-2019 and Some Estimations for the 22nd Solar Cycle using Artificial Neural Network*

(By Huseyin Cavus, Gani Caglar Coban, Abd Ur Raheem, Ahmet Cumhur Kinaci and Gamal A Hoshoudy)

Abstract

The WIND spacecraft has measured 552 Solar based interplanetary shock (IP) waves during 1997-2019. In this data there are 420 Fast Forward (FF), 60 Slow Forward (SF) 31 Slow Reverse (SR) and 41 Fast Reverse (FR) type shock waves. The data regarding these interplanetary shock waves can be obtained from HarvardSmithsonian Astrophysics Centre. The physical parameters regarding these interplanetary shocks have been calculated using the Cavus2013 hydrodynamical model (Cavus, 2013). Correlations were found separately between the physical parameters of the calculated shock waves and the number of sunspots created by observations of the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) and Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO). The objectives of this paper are to check the correlations between the sunspot numbers and the IP shocks, and to predict the shock data for years where no data is present i.e. 22nd Solar cycle. A high correlation was found between the shock parameters calculated from the observations made by the WIND spacecraft between the years 1995-2019 and the sunspot numbers obtained by AAVSO and SILSO separately. Moreover, estimates were made for the years where there was no shock data (22nd Solar cycle i.e. 1986-1994) using an artificial neural network and the correlation was examined again. When the estimated values were also included, an increase in the correlation between sunspot number and physical parameters was observed.

The data will be available after the acceptance of the group paper.

*This study was performed with a grant under the TUBITAK 117F336 project.

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Koronal Kütle Atımlarından Oluşan Şok Dalgalarının İncelenmesi**

(By Hüseyin Çavuş)

Özet

Bu çalışmada, koronal kütle atımları (CME’ler) neticesinde oluşan şok dalgalarının etkisi üzerinde durulacaktır. Bu inceleme için viskozite teriminin de dahil edildiği Navier-Stokes akışkan denklemleri kullanılacaktır. Çalışmanın temel amacı CME’lerin gezegenler arası ortamda meydana getirdiği şok dalgalarını çalışmaktır. Bu amaca bağlı olarak, gezegenler arası ortamda meydana gelmiş ve WIND uzay aracı tarafından 2005 yılında kaydedilmiş 28 adet şok dalgasının yakın uzay üzerindeki olası etkileri anlatılacaktır Ayrıca fiziksel parametrelerde meydana gelen değişimler de sunulacaktır.

 Please cite as

Cavus H, 2018, “Koronal Kütle Atımlarından Oluşan Şok Dalgalarının İncelenmesi”, Ulusal Astronomi Kongresi-2018, 3-7 Eylül 2018, Turkish Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics (TJAA) Volume 1, Issue 2, Page451
(https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/issue-full-file/53875)

**Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK 117F336 nolu proje ile desteklenmiştir.